If you know a keyword's search volume and your ranking position, Google's click-through rate curve tells you roughly how much traffic to expect. This used to be simple; AI Overviews, People Also Ask, and shopping panels have made it more nuanced. Here's the 2026 CTR data you actually need.
2026 CTR by position
| Position | Desktop CTR | Mobile CTR | With AI Overview |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31.7% | 27.5% | 18.4% |
| 2 | 17.4% | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| 3 | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.8% |
| 4 | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% |
| 5 | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| 6 | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| 7 | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| 8 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| 9 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% |
| 10 | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
Source: blended 2025–2026 data from public AWR, Advanced Web Ranking, and Google Search Console industry reports.
Why the curve is steeper than it used to be
In 2018 a #1 ranking got you 36% CTR. In 2026 it's ~31% on average and 18% if your query triggers AI Overviews. Reasons:
- More SERP features People Also Ask, videos, shopping, knowledge panels push organic #1 further down the screen.
- AI Overviews answer info queries directly, removing the click.
- Zero-click dominance >60% of Google sessions in 2026 end without clicking any organic result.
- Mobile weight mobile SERPs show fewer results per viewport, compressing CTR onto position 1.
Traffic estimate formula
Example: a keyword with 20,000 monthly searches, you rank #3, query triggers AI Overview → 20,000 × 11% × 0.62 = ~1,364 clicks/month.
CTR by query intent
Info queries bleed the most to AI Overviews. Commercial and transactional queries are holding up because they still need a click to complete the action.
| Query type | Position 1 CTR | AI Overview impact |
|---|---|---|
| Informational ("what is X?") | 22% | −40% to −55% |
| Commercial ("best X for Y") | 29% | −10% to −20% |
| Transactional ("buy X", "X pricing") | 38% | −5% to −10% |
| Navigational ("login X", "X reviews") | 45% | ~0% |
| Local ("X near me") | 28% | Map pack dominates organic #1 more like pos 4 |
What moves your CTR above the curve
- Title optimization. Title tags matching the query's exact words earn 2–5 percentage points above average.
- Meta description clarity. Answers the query preview-style; increases CTR 10–15%.
- Rich results. FAQ, review, and video schema markup capture extra CTR and SERP real estate.
- Brand recognition. Users recognize "Wikipedia", "Amazon" and click even from position 3.
What kills your CTR
- Title tag truncated past 60 characters.
- Meta description missing or generic.
- Query intent mismatch (commercial title on informational query).
- Multiple brand/nav searchers ahead of you for a generic term.
Measuring your own CTR
Google Search Console shows exact CTR by query by position. Filter to "Last 28 days", sort by impressions, look at queries where:
- Position is 1–5 but CTR is below the curve → title/meta optimization opportunity.
- Position is 6–20 → content refresh opportunity (see our organic-growth playbook).
Why Position 1 Doesn't Always Win
Three SERP features consistently steal clicks from the organic #1 result. Featured snippets appear above position 1 for informational queries and absorb 8–12% of clicks that would otherwise go to the top blue link — and Google often pulls the snippet content from position 2 or 3, not position 1. Branded queries are another variable: if someone searches "Nike running shoes," they almost certainly click the Nike.com result regardless of whether it ranks first. A non-Nike site at position 1 for a brand-modified query earns a fraction of the expected CTR. SERP feature proliferation — shopping panels, local packs, video carousels, and People Also Ask boxes — pushes organic position 1 below the fold on mobile for a growing share of queries. Studies tracking SERP layout changes show that on mobile, position 1 is visible without scrolling on fewer than 55% of searches in 2026.
The practical takeaway: always check what the SERP actually looks like for a target keyword before assuming a position-1 ranking will deliver the expected traffic. If the query is dominated by a featured snippet, a video carousel, or a local pack, recalibrate your traffic estimate downward by 30–50%.
How to Use CTR Data to Prioritise SEO Work
Google Search Console lets you filter queries by position and CTR simultaneously — and the most valuable filter is positions 4–10 with CTR below the expected curve. A page ranking at position 5 with a 1.8% CTR (against an expected 5.5%) is signalling that the title tag or meta description is failing to match searcher intent. That's a 3× traffic upside waiting for a 30-minute rewrite. Start by exporting all queries from the last 28 days, then sort by impressions descending and flag every row where the actual CTR is more than 40% below the position-average from the table above.
Once you have your flag list, prioritize it by monthly impressions × CTR gap. A query with 5,000 monthly impressions at position 6 and a 1% CTR (expected 4.1%) has 155 missing clicks per month — roughly 1,860 per year — sitting idle. Rewriting the title to match the query more precisely is the highest-ROI intervention in SEO for sites that already have rankings. Fix these before launching any new content campaigns.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average Google CTR for position 1?
28–32% in 2026 without AI Overviews; 15–20% when AI Overviews fire. Position 2 averages 15–18%, position 10 around 2.5%.
Did AI Overviews kill organic CTR?
For informational queries, yes CTR on position 1 drops 30–50% when AI Overview fires. Commercial/transactional queries are less affected.
How much traffic will a position 3 ranking get me?
Volume × 10% (position-3 CTR). 10,000 searches × 10% = ~1,000 clicks. Subtract 30% if AI Overview triggers.